run-20260427T135327Z-222826

Ratchet Question

Depth-aware fillable price plus a small overpay cushion is a better canary trigger than raw best ask.

Run Summary

started_utc: 2026-04-27T13:53:27+00:00
ended_utc: 2026-04-27T15:48:52+00:00
planned_cycles: 24
interval_seconds: 300
collected_samples: 24
first_sample_utc: 2026-04-27T13:53:28+00:00
last_sample_utc: 2026-04-27T15:48:52+00:00
action_counts: manual_canary=24
strategy_price_min_avg_max: 0.47763 / 0.4798921698412225 / 0.48492
expected_net_min_avg_max_btc: -0.00000383101148933686517479144602 / -0.000002821503981988926325106899014 / -0.00000236319764547711127977695701

Interpretation

The run repeatedly found bounded canary conditions, but modeled net was negative on average. Next ratchet: do not escalate spend; test a smaller depth target or a lower overpay cushion.

Operator Reading

This run collected 24 public Braiins market samples. The strategy outcomes were: manual_canary=24. Expected net ranged from -0.00000383101148933686517479144602 to -0.00000236319764547711127977695701 BTC. For ratcheting, do not ask whether one line was green or red. Ask whether this run changed one control knob: depth target, overpay cushion, canary spend, duration, or timing window.

Current Full Report Context

The block below is the latest complete human report available when this markdown was written. For retroactive reports, the authoritative reconstructed run data is the summary above.

Braiins Ratchet Report

OCEAN snapshot: 2026-04-27T15:48:52+00:00
  pool_hashrate_eh_s: 15.51
  network_difficulty_t: 135.59
  share_log_window_t: 1084.76
  avg_block_time_hours: 9

Braiins market snapshot: 2026-04-27T15:48:52+00:00
  status: SPOT_INSTRUMENT_STATUS_ACTIVE
  best_bid_btc_per_eh_day: 0.50343
  best_ask_btc_per_eh_day: 0.46075
  fillable_target_ph: 2
  fillable_price_btc_per_eh_day: 0.46773
  suggested_bid_btc_per_eh_day: 0.47773
  last_price_btc_per_eh_day: 0.47933997316187
  available_hashrate_eh_s: 1.91368833114474
  sampled_strategy_price_count: 50
  sampled_strategy_price_min_avg_max: 0.46103 / 0.4792744415237868 / 0.48492

Strategy action: manual_canary
  reason: bounded research canary: profit guardrails not cleared, but expected_net=-0.00000238363529903760002629072482 is within loss budget 0.000025
  breakeven_btc_per_eh_day: 0.4663426590859076733944013201
  expected_reward_btc: 0.00009761636470096239997370927518
  expected_net_btc: -0.00000238363529903760002629072482
  score_btc: -0.00003654936294437444001708897113
  maturity: treat canary as immature for about 72 hours after spend
  proposed_price_btc_per_eh_day: 0.47773
  proposed_spend_btc: 0.00010
  proposed_duration_minutes: 180
  implied_hashrate_eh_s: 0.001674586063257488539551629582

Plain English
  Decision: a tiny manual research canary is allowed by the loss budget, but this is not a profit signal.
  Market depth: the visible best ask is 0.46075, but enough depth for 2 PH/s starts at 0.46773 (gap 0.00698).
  Price check: proposed price is 0.47773; estimated breakeven is 0.4663426590859076733944013201; edge is -0.0113873409140923266055986799 BTC/EH/day.
  Manual canary card: spend 0.00010 BTC (~10000 sats), duration 180 minutes, estimated speed 1.674586063257488539551629582 PH/s.
  Expected result: -0.00000238363529903760002629072482 BTC (~-238 sats) before luck; this is a model estimate, not a promise.
  Wait time: treat canary as immature for about 72 hours after spend.
  Rule: manual_canary means buying information with bounded downside; manual_bid means the stricter profit-seeking guardrails cleared.

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