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BraiinsRatchet/reports/EXPERIMENT_LOG.md

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Experiment Log

Karpathy-style ratchet rule: every run states a hypothesis, collects data, scores the current strategy, and records the next adaptation.

retro-2026-04-25T16-35-00-00-00

  • status: retroactive
  • started_utc: 2026-04-25T16:35:00+00:00
  • ended_utc: 2026-04-25T18:32:00+00:00
  • hypothesis: Retroactively embed an already completed manual watch into the ratchet ledger.
  • plan: reconstruct from stored snapshots because this run happened before automatic run bookkeeping existed.
  • collected_samples: 27
  • action_counts: manual_canary=27
  • report: reports/retro-2026-04-25T16-35-00-00-00.md
  • adaptation: The run repeatedly found bounded canary conditions and average modeled net was slightly positive. Next ratchet: keep spend tiny, test whether the same window survives a lower overpay cushion.

retro-2026-04-25T19-08-00-00-00

  • status: retroactive
  • started_utc: 2026-04-25T19:08:00+00:00
  • ended_utc: 2026-04-25T21:05:00+00:00
  • hypothesis: Retroactively embed an already completed manual watch into the ratchet ledger.
  • plan: reconstruct from stored snapshots because this run happened before automatic run bookkeeping existed.
  • collected_samples: 24
  • action_counts: manual_canary=24
  • report: reports/retro-2026-04-25T19-08-00-00-00.md
  • adaptation: The run repeatedly found bounded canary conditions, but modeled net was negative on average. Next ratchet: do not escalate spend; test a smaller depth target or a lower overpay cushion.

run-20260427T135327Z-222826

  • status: running

  • started_utc: 2026-04-27T13:53:27+00:00

  • planned_cycles: 24

  • interval_seconds: 300

  • planned_duration_minutes: 120.0

  • hypothesis: Depth-aware fillable price plus a small overpay cushion is a better canary trigger than raw best ask.

  • plan: collect public Braiins depth, collect OCEAN state, compute shadow canary, store every proposal.

  • operator_action: none by default; manual action only if report later says manual_canary or manual_bid and operator agrees.

  • status_update: completed

  • ended_utc: 2026-04-27T15:48:52+00:00

  • collected_samples: 24

  • action_counts: manual_canary=24

  • strategy_price_min_avg_max: 0.47763 / 0.4798921698412225 / 0.48492

  • expected_net_min_avg_max_btc: -0.00000383101148933686517479144602 / -0.000002821503981988926325106899014 / -0.00000236319764547711127977695701

  • latest_action: manual_canary

  • latest_reason: bounded research canary: profit guardrails not cleared, but expected_net=-0.00000238363529903760002629072482 is within loss budget 0.000025

  • report: reports/run-20260427T135327Z-222826.md

  • adaptation: The run repeatedly found bounded canary conditions, but modeled net was negative on average. Next ratchet: do not escalate spend; test a smaller depth target or a lower overpay cushion.