diff --git a/python/prophet/models.py b/python/prophet/models.py
index d351660..012f90a 100644
--- a/python/prophet/models.py
+++ b/python/prophet/models.py
@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ class IStanBackend(ABC):
 
 
 class CmdStanPyBackend(IStanBackend):
-    CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.26.1"
+    CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.31.0"
     def __init__(self):
         import cmdstanpy
         # this must be set before super.__init__() for load_model to work on Windows
diff --git a/python/setup.py b/python/setup.py
index 20b7c69..f8ab2cd 100644
--- a/python/setup.py
+++ b/python/setup.py
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import platform
 from pathlib import Path
 from shutil import copy, copytree, rmtree
 from typing import List
+import tempfile
 
 from setuptools import find_packages, setup, Extension
 from setuptools.command.build_ext import build_ext
@@ -19,13 +20,15 @@ from wheel.bdist_wheel import bdist_wheel
 MODEL_DIR = "stan"
 MODEL_TARGET_DIR = os.path.join("prophet", "stan_model")
 
-CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.26.1"
+CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.31.0"
 BINARIES_DIR = "bin"
 BINARIES = ["diagnose", "print", "stanc", "stansummary"]
 TBB_PARENT = "stan/lib/stan_math/lib"
-TBB_DIRS = ["tbb", "tbb_2019_U8"]
+TBB_DIRS = ["tbb", "tbb_2020.3"]
 
 
+IS_WINDOWS = platform.platform().startswith("Win")
+
 def prune_cmdstan(cmdstan_dir: str) -> None:
     """
     Keep only the cmdstan executables and tbb files (minimum required to run a cmdstanpy commands on a pre-compiled model).
@@ -55,12 +58,13 @@ def repackage_cmdstan():
     return os.environ.get("PROPHET_REPACKAGE_CMDSTAN", "").lower() not in ["false", "0"]
 
 
-def maybe_install_cmdstan_toolchain():
+def maybe_install_cmdstan_toolchain() -> bool:
     """Install C++ compilers required to build stan models on Windows machines."""
     import cmdstanpy
 
     try:
         cmdstanpy.utils.cxx_toolchain_path()
+        return False
     except Exception:
         try:
             from cmdstanpy.install_cxx_toolchain import run_rtools_install
@@ -70,14 +74,14 @@ def maybe_install_cmdstan_toolchain():
 
         run_rtools_install({"version": None, "dir": None, "verbose": True})
         cmdstanpy.utils.cxx_toolchain_path()
-
+        return True
 
 def install_cmdstan_deps(cmdstan_dir: Path):
     import cmdstanpy
     from multiprocessing import cpu_count
 
     if repackage_cmdstan():
-        if platform.platform().startswith("Win"):
+        if IS_WINDOWS:
             maybe_install_cmdstan_toolchain()
         print("Installing cmdstan to", cmdstan_dir)
         if os.path.isdir(cmdstan_dir):
@@ -91,6 +95,7 @@ def install_cmdstan_deps(cmdstan_dir: Path):
             cores=cpu_count(),
             progress=True,
         ):
+
             raise RuntimeError("CmdStan failed to install in repackaged directory")
 
 
@@ -106,12 +111,24 @@ def build_cmdstan_model(target_dir):
     """
     import cmdstanpy
 
-    cmdstan_dir = (Path(target_dir) / f"cmdstan-{CMDSTAN_VERSION}").resolve()
-    install_cmdstan_deps(cmdstan_dir)
-    model_name = "prophet.stan"
-    target_name = "prophet_model.bin"
-    sm = cmdstanpy.CmdStanModel(stan_file=os.path.join(MODEL_DIR, model_name))
-    copy(sm.exe_file, os.path.join(target_dir, target_name))
+    target_cmdstan_dir = (Path(target_dir) / f"cmdstan-{CMDSTAN_VERSION}").resolve()
+    with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as tmp_dir:
+        # long paths on windows can cause problems during build
+        if IS_WINDOWS:
+            cmdstan_dir = (Path(tmp_dir) / f"cmdstan-{CMDSTAN_VERSION}").resolve()
+        else:
+            cmdstan_dir = target_cmdstan_dir
+
+        install_cmdstan_deps(cmdstan_dir)
+        model_name = "prophet.stan"
+
+        temp_stan_file = copy(os.path.join(MODEL_DIR, model_name), cmdstan_dir)
+        sm = cmdstanpy.CmdStanModel(stan_file=temp_stan_file)
+        target_name = "prophet_model.bin"
+        copy(sm.exe_file, os.path.join(target_dir, target_name))
+
+        if IS_WINDOWS:
+            copytree(cmdstan_dir, target_cmdstan_dir)
 
     # Clean up
     for f in Path(MODEL_DIR).iterdir():
@@ -119,7 +136,7 @@ def build_cmdstan_model(target_dir):
             os.remove(f)
 
     if repackage_cmdstan():
-        prune_cmdstan(cmdstan_dir)
+        prune_cmdstan(target_cmdstan_dir)
 
 
 def get_backends_from_env() -> List[str]: