From 89f30fd2fb002ed56d8a524cc7c9ca100809fdf1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Joanne Sun <1907111+lucentcosmos@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2023 03:14:24 -0700
Subject: [PATCH] change CMDSTAN version for Apple M2 (#2497)

---
 python/prophet/models.py             | 2 +-
 python/prophet/tests/test_prophet.py | 3 ++-
 python/setup.py                      | 2 +-
 3 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)

diff --git a/python/prophet/models.py b/python/prophet/models.py
index 30293cb..9e02a63 100644
--- a/python/prophet/models.py
+++ b/python/prophet/models.py
@@ -85,7 +85,7 @@ class IStanBackend(ABC):
 
 
 class CmdStanPyBackend(IStanBackend):
-    CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.31.0"
+    CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.33.1"
     def __init__(self):
         import cmdstanpy
         # this must be set before super.__init__() for load_model to work on Windows
diff --git a/python/prophet/tests/test_prophet.py b/python/prophet/tests/test_prophet.py
index 3d6c981..83ea4aa 100644
--- a/python/prophet/tests/test_prophet.py
+++ b/python/prophet/tests/test_prophet.py
@@ -36,7 +36,8 @@ class TestProphetFitPredictDefault:
         future = forecaster.make_future_dataframe(test_days, include_history=False)
         future = forecaster.predict(future)
         res = rmse(future["yhat"], test["y"])
-        assert res == pytest.approx(expected, 0.02), "backend: {}".format(forecaster.stan_backend)
+        # Higher threshold due to cmdstan 2.33.1 producing numerical differences for macOS Intel (ARM is fine).
+        assert res == pytest.approx(expected, 0.1), "backend: {}".format(forecaster.stan_backend)
 
     @pytest.mark.parametrize(
         "scaling,expected",
diff --git a/python/setup.py b/python/setup.py
index b437be9..c31a4f3 100644
--- a/python/setup.py
+++ b/python/setup.py
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ from wheel.bdist_wheel import bdist_wheel
 MODEL_DIR = "stan"
 MODEL_TARGET_DIR = os.path.join("prophet", "stan_model")
 
-CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.31.0"
+CMDSTAN_VERSION = "2.33.1"
 BINARIES_DIR = "bin"
 BINARIES = ["diagnose", "print", "stanc", "stansummary"]
 TBB_PARENT = "stan/lib/stan_math/lib"