saymrwulf/prophet
1
0
Fork 0
mirror of https://github.com/saymrwulf/prophet.git synced 2026-09-06 20:40:37 +00:00
Code Issues Projects Releases Packages Wiki Activity Actions
prophet/notebooks/saturating_forecasts.ipynb

325 lines
348 KiB
Text
Raw Normal View History

Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"block_hidden": true,
"collapsed": true
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"%load_ext rpy2.ipython\n",
"%matplotlib inline\n",
"from fbprophet import Prophet\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"import logging\n",
"logging.getLogger('fbprophet').setLevel(logging.ERROR)\n",
"import warnings\n",
"warnings.filterwarnings(\"ignore\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"block_hidden": true,
"collapsed": true
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"%%R\n",
"library(prophet)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Forecasting Growth\n",
"\n",
"By default, Prophet uses a linear model for its forecast. When forecasting growth, there is usually some maximum achievable point: total market size, total population size, etc. This is called the carrying capacity, and the forecast should saturate at this point.\n",
"\n",
"Prophet allows you to make forecasts using a [logistic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function) trend model, with a specified carrying capacity. We illustrate this with the log number of page visits to the [R (programming language)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_%28programming_language%29) page on Wikipedia:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"metadata": {},
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
"outputs": [],
"source": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"df = pd.read_csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R.csv')"
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 4,
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"%%R\n",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"df <- read.csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R.csv')"
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"We must specify the carrying capacity in a column `cap`. Here we will assume a particular value, but this would usually be set using data or expertise about the market size."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"df['cap'] = 8.5"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"%%R\n",
"df$cap <- 8.5"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"The important things to note are that `cap` must be specified for every row in the dataframe, and that it does not have to be constant. If the market size is growing, then `cap` can be an increasing sequence.\n",
"\n",
"We then fit the model as before, except pass in an additional argument to specify logistic growth:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"<fbprophet.forecaster.Prophet at 0x7f306412f190>"
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
]
},
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"m = Prophet(growth='logistic')\n",
"m.fit(df)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Initial log joint probability = -67.9808\n",
"Optimization terminated normally: \n",
" Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance\n"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"%%R\n",
"m <- prophet(df, growth = 'logistic')"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"We make a dataframe for future predictions as before, except we must also specify the capacity in the future. Here we keep capacity constant at the same value as in the history, and forecast 3 years into the future:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"\r",
"|======================================================|100% ~0 s remaining "
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAtAAAAGwCAIAAAAPKcUMAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAAg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\ny8vJ9rtzp06dOvVyeQu
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"%%R -w 10 -h 6 -u in\n",
"future <- make_future_dataframe(m, periods = 1826)\n",
"future$cap <- 8.5\n",
"fcst <- predict(m, future)\n",
"plot(m, fcst);"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"execution_count": 10,
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAsgAAAGoCAYAAABbtxOxAAAABHNCSVQICAgIfAhkiAAAAAlwSFlz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\nnA9sa09P4gLQL4lbdZ1
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
"text/plain": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"<Figure size 720x432 with 1 Axes>"
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=1826)\n",
"future['cap'] = 8.5\n",
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
"fcst = m.predict(future)\n",
"m.plot(fcst);"
]
},
{
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"cell_type": "markdown",
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
"metadata": {},
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"source": [
Clarify in documentation the saturating min requires specifying cap
2017-09-17 04:52:17 +00:00
"The logistic function has an implicit minimum of 0, and will saturate at 0 the same way that it saturates at the capacity. It is possible to also specify a different saturating minimum.\n",
"\n",
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"### Saturating Minimum\n",
"\n",
"The logistic growth model can also handle a saturating minimum, which is specified with a column `floor` in the same way as the `cap` column specifies the maximum:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Initial log joint probability = -157.241\n",
"Optimization terminated normally: \n",
" Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance\n",
"\r",
"|======================================================|100% ~0 s remaining "
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAtAAAAGwCAIAAAAPKcUMAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAAg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\nGzbk0u3atSvNNlUY48e
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"%%R -w 10 -h 6 -u in\n",
"df$y <- 10 - df$y\n",
"df$cap <- 6\n",
"df$floor <- 1.5\n",
"future$cap <- 6\n",
"future$floor <- 1.5\n",
"m <- prophet(df, growth = 'logistic')\n",
"fcst <- predict(m, future)\n",
"plot(m, fcst)"
]
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAsgAAAGoCAYAAABbtxOxAAAABHNCSVQICAgIfAhkiAAAAAlwSFlz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\njRu320Ftop1bb72Vs84
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"text/plain": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"<Figure size 720x432 with 1 Axes>"
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"df['y'] = 10 - df['y']\n",
"df['cap'] = 6\n",
"df['floor'] = 1.5\n",
"future['cap'] = 6\n",
"future['floor'] = 1.5\n",
"m = Prophet(growth='logistic')\n",
"m.fit(df)\n",
"fcst = m.predict(future)\n",
"m.plot(fcst);"
]
Clarify in documentation the saturating min requires specifying cap
2017-09-17 04:52:17 +00:00
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"To use a logistic growth trend with a saturating minimum, a maximum capacity must also be specified."
]
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 2",
"language": "python",
"name": "python2"
},
"language_info": {
"codemirror_mode": {
"name": "ipython",
"version": 2
},
"file_extension": ".py",
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython2",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"version": "2.7.14+"
Documentation for saturating minimums
2017-09-02 18:05:51 +00:00
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 1
}
Reference in a new issue Copy permalink