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prophet/notebooks/outliers.ipynb

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Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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"block_hidden": true,
"collapsed": true
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},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"%load_ext rpy2.ipython\n",
"%matplotlib inline\n",
"from fbprophet import Prophet\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
Regenerate all documentation
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"import logging\n",
"logging.getLogger('fbprophet').setLevel(logging.ERROR)\n",
"import warnings\n",
"warnings.filterwarnings(\"ignore\")"
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]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"block_hidden": true,
"collapsed": true
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},
Regenerate all documentation
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
"%%R\n",
"library(prophet)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"There are two main ways that outliers can affect Prophet forecasts. Here we make a forecast on the logged Wikipedia visits to the R page from before, but with a block of bad data:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
Regenerate all documentation
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"Initial log joint probability = -28.5336\n",
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"Optimization terminated normally: \n",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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" Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance\n",
"\r",
"|======================================================|100% ~0 s remaining "
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAtAAAAGwCAIAAAAPKcUMAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAAg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\nQ5sTQgi531DBhhWiEg5
Initial commit
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},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"%%R -w 10 -h 6 -u in\n",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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"df <- read.csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R_outliers1.csv')\n",
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"m <- prophet(df)\n",
"future <- make_future_dataframe(m, periods = 1096)\n",
"forecast <- predict(m, future)\n",
"plot(m, forecast);"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 4,
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"metadata": {},
Initial commit
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"outputs": [
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAsgAAAGoCAYAAABbtxOxAAAABHNCSVQICAgIfAhkiAAAAAlwSFlz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\naOKZ5PJ0ggOGVVCRVoX
Initial commit
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"text/plain": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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"<Figure size 720x432 with 1 Axes>"
Initial commit
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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"df = pd.read_csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R_outliers1.csv')\n",
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"m = Prophet()\n",
"m.fit(df)\n",
"future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=1096)\n",
"forecast = m.predict(future)\n",
"m.plot(forecast);"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"The trend forecast seems reasonable, but the uncertainty intervals seem way too wide. Prophet is able to handle the outliers in the history, but only by fitting them with trend changes. The uncertainty model then expects future trend changes of similar magnitude.\n",
"\n",
"The best way to handle outliers is to remove them - Prophet has no problem with missing data. If you set their values to `NA` in the history but leave the dates in `future`, then Prophet will give you a prediction for their values."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
Regenerate all documentation
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"Initial log joint probability = -21.2638\n",
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"Error evaluating model log probability: Non-finite gradient.\n",
"Error evaluating model log probability: Non-finite gradient.\n",
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"\n",
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"Optimization terminated normally: \n",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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" Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance\n",
"\r",
"|======================================================|100% ~0 s remaining "
Initial commit
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAtAAAAGwCAIAAAAPKcUMAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAAg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\nG9dHd23Vr1+/xo0bnzx
Initial commit
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},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"%%R -w 10 -h 6 -u in\n",
"outliers <- (as.Date(df$ds) > as.Date('2010-01-01')\n",
" & as.Date(df$ds) < as.Date('2011-01-01'))\n",
"df$y[outliers] = NA\n",
"m <- prophet(df)\n",
"forecast <- predict(m, future)\n",
"plot(m, forecast);"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
Regenerate all documentation
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"metadata": {},
Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAsgAAAGoCAYAAABbtxOxAAAABHNCSVQICAgIfAhkiAAAAAlwSFlz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\nkrOZm+CmRKpbX1iL3ip
Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
"text/plain": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"<Figure size 720x432 with 1 Axes>"
Initial commit
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"df.loc[(df['ds'] > '2010-01-01') & (df['ds'] < '2011-01-01'), 'y'] = None\n",
"model = Prophet().fit(df)\n",
"model.plot(model.predict(future));"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"In the above example the outliers messed up the uncertainty estimation but did not impact the main forecast `yhat`. This isn't always the case, as in this example with added outliers:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
Regenerate all documentation
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"Initial log joint probability = -27.5907\n",
Initial commit
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"Error evaluating model log probability: Non-finite gradient.\n",
"Error evaluating model log probability: Non-finite gradient.\n",
Regenerate all documentation
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"\n",
Initial commit
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"Optimization terminated normally: \n",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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" Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance\n",
"\r",
"|======================================================|100% ~0 s remaining "
Initial commit
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAtAAAAGwCAIAAAAPKcUMAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAAg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\niooCEOh/5ff9x1u376x
Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"%%R -w 10 -h 6 -u in\n",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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"df <- read.csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R_outliers2.csv')\n",
Initial commit
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"m <- prophet(df)\n",
"future <- make_future_dataframe(m, periods = 1096)\n",
"forecast <- predict(m, future)\n",
"plot(m, forecast);"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 8,
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"metadata": {},
Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAsgAAAGoCAYAAABbtxOxAAAABHNCSVQICAgIfAhkiAAAAAlwSFlz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\n68h5KPjS1Kf/gtAVoRh
Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
"text/plain": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"<Figure size 720x432 with 1 Axes>"
Initial commit
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"df = pd.read_csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R_outliers2.csv')\n",
Initial commit
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"m = Prophet()\n",
"m.fit(df)\n",
"future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=1096)\n",
"forecast = m.predict(future)\n",
"m.plot(forecast);"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Here a group of extreme outliers in June 2015 mess up the seasonality estimate, so their effect reverberates into the future forever. Again the right approach is to remove them:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {
"output_hidden": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
Regenerate all documentation
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"Initial log joint probability = -24.7625\n",
Initial commit
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"Optimization terminated normally: \n",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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" Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance\n",
"\r",
"|======================================================|100% ~0 s remaining "
Initial commit
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAtAAAAGwCAIAAAAPKcUMAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAAg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\naETknIU/sNu3y4Ay07t
Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"%%R -w 10 -h 6 -u in\n",
"outliers <- (as.Date(df$ds) > as.Date('2015-06-01')\n",
" & as.Date(df$ds) < as.Date('2015-06-30'))\n",
"df$y[outliers] = NA\n",
"m <- prophet(df)\n",
"forecast <- predict(m, future)\n",
"plot(m, forecast);"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 10,
Regenerate all documentation
2017-09-02 20:07:49 +00:00
"metadata": {},
Initial commit
2017-02-22 23:59:43 +00:00
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAsgAAAGoCAYAAABbtxOxAAAABHNCSVQICAgIfAhkiAAAAAlwSFlz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\njEDgKjR+DLGjFUpD0Xb
Initial commit
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"text/plain": [
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
2018-05-30 22:34:41 +00:00
"<Figure size 720x432 with 1 Axes>"
Initial commit
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"df.loc[(df['ds'] > '2015-06-01') & (df['ds'] < '2015-06-30'), 'y'] = None\n",
"m = Prophet().fit(df)\n",
"m.plot(m.predict(future));"
]
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 2",
"language": "python",
"name": "python2"
},
"language_info": {
"codemirror_mode": {
"name": "ipython",
"version": 2
},
"file_extension": ".py",
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython2",
Remove log transforms in the documentation by log transforming the CSVs, to avoid people thinking they have to log transform their data in order to use Prophet.
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"version": "2.7.14+"
Initial commit
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}
},
"nbformat": 4,
Regenerate all documentation
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"nbformat_minor": 1
Initial commit
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}
Reference in a new issue Copy permalink