Production Hardening:
- Add circuit breaker pattern (src/core/resilience.py)
- Add timeout protection for CLOB operations in broker
- Enhance health checks with liveness/readiness probes
- Improve kill switch audit logging with stack traces
- Add response caching and health checker utilities
Backtesting Enhancements:
- Add multi-strategy comparison framework (comparison.py)
- Add parameter optimization with grid/random search (optimizer.py)
- Add Monte Carlo simulation analysis (monte_carlo.py)
- Add walk-forward analysis with date-based windows (walk_forward.py)
- Support anchored vs rolling window modes
- Add overfitting detection and consistency scoring
Documentation:
- Add THE_ALPHA_CHRONICLES.md - 25-page novel about using Alpha Arena
- Educational narrative covering prediction markets, Kelly Criterion,
multi-agent systems, risk management, and the Polymarket ecosystem
- Includes practical amateur's guide and sci-fi glimpse of 2031
All 328 tests passing.
Implement a comprehensive debate framework for improved trading decisions:
- Add 6 debate personas: Optimist, Pessimist, Fundamentalist, Technician,
Devil's Advocate, and Neutral
- Implement structured debate rounds with position-taking and rebuttals
- Add weighted consensus mechanism for aggregating agent opinions
- Add confidence calibration tracking to improve accuracy over time
- Include comprehensive test suite (38 tests)
New components:
- src/agents/debate.py - Complete debate system implementation
- DebateAgent: Individual agent with persona-specific prompts
- DebateOrchestrator: Coordinates multi-agent debates
- ConfidenceCalibrator: Tracks prediction accuracy
- tests/test_debate.py - Full test coverage
The debate system helps avoid groupthink by having agents with different
analytical biases challenge each other's positions before reaching consensus.
A comprehensive autonomous trading system for Polymarket prediction markets
featuring multi-LLM provider support, a native macOS menu bar app, and a
web-based control dashboard.
Key features:
- Multi-agent trading system (Research, Risk, Execution, Reflection agents)
- LLM provider flexibility (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI, Local models)
- Automatic provider fallback chain for resilience
- Native Swift/SwiftUI macOS menu bar application
- FastAPI web dashboard with real-time WebSocket updates
- Risk management with kill switch
- Technical indicators and market analysis
